OPEC+ Shifts Strategy to Regain Market Share with Gradual Output Increase

OPEC+ has agreed to incrementally raise oil production by approximately 137,000 barrels per day starting October, marking a strategic pivot toward reclaiming lost market share. The coalition, spearheaded by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is accelerating the rollback of previously agreed cuts—originally set to last until 2026—with full restoration possible within a year at this pace.

The MOVE underscores a stark departure from the cartel’s traditional price-defense tactics. Earlier this year, OPEC+ blindsided markets by reviving 2.2 million barrels per day of halted supply ahead of schedule. Despite crude prices dipping 12% year-to-date, the market has absorbed the supply shock with surprising resilience.

Implementation remains messy. Capacity constraints among some members and compensatory cuts for past overproduction will likely result in actual additions falling short of the headline figure. Yet the message is clear: market share now takes precedence over price support.